Looming Digital Doomsday: Quantum Computing Threatens to Make CrowdStrike Meltdown Look Trivial

Imagine waking up to find every bank account compromised, digital records untrustworthy, and asset ownership changed overnight. Even nuclear codes are no longer secret because there are no secrets anymore. This doomsday scenario, first evoked by MIT mathematician Peter Shor thirty years ago, is based on the power of quantum computing to crack nearly all of the world’s codes.

The implications of this are profound. “You really don’t want people to change the ownership of data and digital assets, or rewrite history effectively by changing the digital signature,” explains Luke Ibbetson, head of group R&D at Vodafone. “What you think is your private record, all of a sudden isn’t.”

Our dependence on digital systems was starkly highlighted by last week’s CrowdStrike software glitch, which brought large parts of society to a temporary standstill. This event may look minor compared to the potential havoc of Shor’s envisioned scenario. Shor’s algorithm showed that a powerful quantum computer could drastically reduce the time needed to crack today’s cryptographic systems, effectively placing an expiration date on our current digital security measures.

“With a sufficiently large and accurate quantum computer, a bad actor could break today’s asymmetric cryptography, which underpins the entire digital economy,” says Scott Crowder, IBM’s vice president for quantum computing.

Quantum computing, one of the most ambitious scientific endeavors, is based on the seemingly random behavior of the smallest units of matter. Engineers use terms like “flux capacitors” and “teleportation” and create devices that look straight out of science fiction. IBM’s quantum computer, for instance, resembles an ornate, baroque structure that operates at temperatures colder than deep space.

Harnessing quantum physics could exponentially speed up computing processes. However, it’s difficult and unreliable. The core units of quantum computers, known as qubits, are highly unstable. Their operational stability, or coherence time, is measured in milliseconds. Classical computers, by contrast, can run billions of operations per second for years with minimal errors.

Despite these challenges, the potential of quantum computing is taken very seriously. The UK’s National Quantum Computing Centre hosts multiple platforms available for free use online, including from IBM and Microsoft. Though it may seem like a distant possibility, IBM anticipates quantum computers with more than 1,000 qubits soon, potentially capable of running Shor’s algorithms by the early 2030s.

The race is not just to build quantum computers but also to develop new cryptographic algorithms that these machines cannot easily crack. The American National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is about to publish its first batch of quantum-proof cryptographic algorithms, known as Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). This has taken eight years to develop, and the next challenge is implementing them across existing systems.

“Because cryptography is buried in all the protocols we use, uplifting and swapping them all out for ones that are quantum-resistant is not a simple task,” says Ibbetson. Network operators are working with IBM, NIST, and others to secure the infrastructure. The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre advises that the PQC transition will largely happen behind the scenes, but it underscores how easily our digital economy could be unraveled.

Quantum computers also hold promise beyond cryptography. They could revolutionize fields like medicine, materials science, scenario planning, and data analysis. However, the race to prepare our digital infrastructure for the quantum age is critical. As Ibbetson points out, the ability to change digital signatures and rewrite history is a powerful and dangerous prospect.

As we edge closer to this quantum revolution, ensuring our cryptographic systems can withstand the advances in quantum computing is essential to maintaining the integrity of our digital world.